While the breakthrough may come from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s talks in Tashkent, the final outcome of India’s pitch will be seen in Seoul.

Senior Indian officials are working their way through all the various blocs at the 48-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), giving the last push to New Delhi's membership application during this year’s annual plenary that got underway on Thursday at Seoul’s Shilla Hotel. While the breakthrough may come from the Prime Minister’s talks in Tashkent, the final outcome of India’s pitch will be seen here.
Led by Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar, an expert in nuclear issues himself and who has served in high profile positions in Indian missions in the US, China, Russia and Japan (key countries in the NSG), the Indian team includes its top official on nuclear issues Amandeep Singh Gill, who has negotiated the details of India’s civil nuclear agreements and MoUs with countries including Canada, US, Australia and Japan in the past few years. Also in Seoul is India’s Ambassador to South Korea Vikram Doraiswami, who has served in the PMO’s of both Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh, and handled the America desk during the crucial phases of the India-U.S. civil nuclear engagement.
It is unclear whether they are meeting a Chinese team led by senior Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials, which had led the main objectors to India’s campaign.
NSG deliberations are held behind closed doors, and the Indian team does not have access to the meeting at present, and it is understood that “only a few countries”, including Turkey, Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, and South Africa have been holding out on giving India their support publicly. However, given the consensus rule for the NSG, even one of those countries can derail India’s quest during this session.
US, UK, France proclaim support
In the past few days, countries like the U.S., the U.K. and France have made public proclamations of support to India’s bid, calling on other members to follow suit, while Russian President Putin said that India’s case was “special” and must be supported within the ambits of international law. The U.S., in particular, has been working the phones to canvas for India.Hosts South Korea and the country chairing the session, Argentina, have both been pushing India’s case as well, and have ensured several rounds of unofficial talk between the NSG members this past week.
Diplomats rejected criticism that India’s timeline was too “ambitious.” “What we are asking for is immediate membership”, a government source said on Wednesday, making it clear that India was not pursuing a compromise solution or a deferment of the decision as an option either.
“NSG members have discussed the question of non-NPT (countries that haven’t signed the Non Proliferation Treaty) several times since 2011, including up to the special session convened in Vienna on June 9-10” said a senior official, indicating that the time to bring it on the group’s formal agenda was now. China has been couching its opposition to India’s accession by calling for “criteria-based” process for entry of all non-NPT countries.
However, the criteria process has thrown up other problems in the past few days. While India has said it would not object to other non-NPT nations joining the NSG, it may not be as simple to convince others. China and Turkey have been keen to bring Pakistan into the NSG-fold along with India, but given Pakistan’s record in illicit nuclear trade, non-proliferation hardliners like Ireland, Austria and New Zealand would possibly disallow that.
Even countries like the U.S. have made it clear that Pakistan’s membership application isn’t ready, until it puts many more safeguards in place. Israel is the other non-NPT contender, although it has not yet applied for membership, and no doubt will raise opposition from some of the other members.
At present, unless China shifts its position, only Namibia, which is a signatory of the NPT and has applied this year, is likely to be considered, officials said.
If the membership issue is not taken up or discussed during the plenary on Thursday and Friday, it would not mean an end to India’s hopes, however, and the issue may be taken up at another special session later this year.
India has been keen to complete the process during US President Barack Obama’s tenure, given that he had made a commitment to help India with the NSG during his visit in 2010.
When asked about the consequences of a loss in Seoul, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj had compared the NSG campaign to running a Lok Sabha election campaign. “You close your ears to the possibility of defeat,” he said.
According to a seasoned diplomat privy to the campaign, it was like “learning to ride a bicycle”. “You wont know if you succeed until you get on the bike. You may get hurt the first few times, but you have to get back on and keep trying.”